Table 7 Scenarios summary

Scenario 1: LEAD study baseline cohort

Base case analysis repeated using baseline characteristics reported in the LEAD study

Scenario 2: split between SHE1:SHE2 as 1:1

Adjusted the proportion of hypoglycemia requiring (SHE2) versus not-requiring medical (SHE1) assistance to 1:1. In base case, the percentage of SHE2 is set as 11.8% of total hypoglycemia rate

Scenario 3: efficacy adjusted

Assumed that the rates of severe hypoglycaemia were at the upper bound of the 95% CI of glargine U100 treatment and the lower bound of 95% CI of NPH treatment

Scenario 4: PROcam risk equations

Repeated analysis using PROcam risk equations to predict outcomes

Scenario 5: UKPDS 82 risk equations

Repeated analysis using UKPDS 82 risk equations to predict outcomes