Parameters | Point estimate | 95%CI for sensitivity analysis | Parameter distribution | Data sources |
---|---|---|---|---|
Epidemiology | ||||
Maternal HIV infection rate | 1.5% | Ref.19 | ||
ANC after gestational age 34 weeks | 7.4% | 6.7–8.0% | Beta | Ref.8 |
Rate of perinatal HIV transmission | 18.9% | 13.2–24.4% | Beta | Ref.3 |
Rate of transmission via breastfeeding | 12.0% | 7.0–17.0%* | Beta | Ref.22 |
Percent of HIV infection detected by second VCT | 4.7% | 2.70–7.5% | Beta | Ref.20 |
Rate of HIV infected mothers who, treated with NVP, developed HIV resistance to NVP | 17.4% | 12.0–22.7% | Beta | Ref.17 |
Rate of HIV infected mothers who need to be treated AIDS within a year after delivery | 33.9% | 29.6–38.3% | Beta | Ref.28 |
Efficacy of Antiretrovial therapy | ||||
Odds of transmitting the virus when mother received AZT > = 4 weeks versus placebo | 0.46 | 0.35–0.60 | Normal | Ref.23 |
Odds of transmitting the virus when mother received AZT < 4 weeks versus receiving AZT > = 4 weeks | 1.40 | 0.82–2.38 | Normal | Ref.24 |
Risk of transmitting the virus with NVP regimen versus placebo | 0.51 | 0.33–0.79 | Normal | Ref. 23 |
Risk of transmitting the virus with AZT+NVP regimen versus receiving AZT > = 4 weeks | 0.23 | 0.05–0.41 | Normal | Ref.6 |
Compliance to the Programme | ||||
Infected pregnant women who know their HIV status before or at 36 week of gestation and accept AZT | 75% | 70–90% | Beta | Ref.8 |
Infected pregnant women who know their HIV status after 36 week of gestation and accept AZT | 65% | 55–90%* | Beta | Assumption (see text) |
Infected pregnant women who know their HIV status before or at 36 week of gestation, do not accept AZT but accept NVP | 50% | 30–70%* | Beta | Assumption (see text) |
Infected pregnant women who know their HIV status before or at 36 week of gestation and accept NVP | 85% | 70–90%* | Beta | Assumption (see text) |
Infected pregnant women who know their HIV status after 36 week of gestation and accept NVP | 75% | 70–90%* | Beta | Assumption (see text) |
Infected pregnant women who know their HIV status before or at 36 week of gestation and accept AZT+NVP | 84% | 80–90% | Beta | Ref.17 |
Infected pregnant women who know their HIV status after 36 week of gestation and accept AZT+NVP | 75% | 70–80%* | Beta | Assumption (see text) |
Programme unit cost | US$ 2003 | |||
VCT for HIV negative pregnancy | 2.69 | 1.57–7.79 | Gramma | Ref. 8 |
VCT for HIV positive pregnancy | 7.10 | 3.82–14.54 | Gramma | Ref. 8 |
HIV testing for baby born by infected mother | 5.61 | 3.18–11.65 | Gramma | Ref. 8 |
Cost of antepartum AZT (per weeks) | 10.50 | Thai Department of Health | ||
Cost of intrapartum AZT | 2.30 | Thai Department of Health | ||
Cost of infant AZT (per week) | 17.20 | Thai Department of Health | ||
Cost of NPV for mother and infant | 3.10 | Price survey by authors | ||
Breast milk substitutes (per 1 year) | 175.90 | Thai Department of Health | ||
Incremental cost of switching from NNRTI-base treatment regimen to PI-based regimen | 497 | 147–847 | Gramma | Ref.29 |
Public sector health expenditure | ||||
Life time pediatric HIV/AIDS treatment cost | 1,680 | 1,340–2,015 | Gramma | Ref.30 |